Why Adam O’Brien Wants His ‘Ugly Ducklings’ to Make It a Slogfest in Townsville
The Newcastle Knights prepare to take on the North Queensland Cowboys in an elimination semi final in season 2024.
NRL SEASON 2024
Micheal Burkill
9/12/20244 min read
Published: Thursday, 12/09/2024, at 7 PM
Adam O’Brien’s time as the coach of the Newcastle Knights has been anything but straightforward. Tasked with turning a mediocre performing club into genuine premiership contenders, O’Brien has embraced an identity. Calling his team “Ugly Ducklings,” he’s acknowledged the unglamorous style of football he wants them to play — a style designed for one purpose: to win tough. As the Knights head to Townsville for a critical match, O’Brien will once again ask his team to make it a slogfest.
AOB’s record as head coach may show that he has guided the Newcastle Knights to the finals in four out of his five years in charge, a notable achievement by most standards. However, in four finals matches, the Knights have secured just one win, at a win rate of 25% with three losses, highlighting the defensive frailties and inability to handle high-stakes games.
In those finals matches, the Knights have averaged 20 points scored but have conceded 36 points per game. These figures reflect the need for a tougher, more resilient style of play, one that doesn’t rely on high-scoring shootouts but on grinding down opponents, holding firm in defence, and capitalising on small moments. This is why O’Brien’s current approach is focused on gritty, hard-fought contests, where his team’s toughness and discipline can wear down even the most formidable opponents.
Knights 1/10 Against Top 8 Teams in 2024
The Knights have been unable to get it right in 2024 with a dismal record against top 8 teams this season. In 2024, the Knights managed just 1 win from 10 matches against top 8 sides, translating to a 10% win rate, the lowest among the teams that qualified for the finals. This poor record contrasts sharply with the Cowboys, who boast a 70% win rate, having won 7 of their 10 matches against top 8 opposition.
A Critical Match in AOB’s Coaching Career
A win will see O’Brien’s stock rise and give supporters faith in the direction of the team and their hopes of further progression in the 2024 finals series. However, a loss will see his win rate dip to 20% in finals matches, raising serious questions about his ability to take the club deep into finals series and challenge for premierships. The pressure is now on for O’Brien and his “Ugly Ducklings” to prove that they can handle the heat and turn the tide against stronger opposition when it’s all on the line.
Match Details
Date & Time: Saturday, 14th September 2024, 7:50 PM (AEST)
Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Final Teams
Backs:
Kalyn Ponga (Fullback, Captain) vs. Scott Drinkwater (Fullback)
Fletcher Sharpe (Wing) vs. Kyle Feldt (Wing)
Dane Gagai (Centre) vs. Valentine Holmes (Centre)
Bradman Best (Centre) vs. Viliami Vailea (Centre)
Greg Marzhew (Wing) vs. Murray Taulagi (Wing)
Jack Cogger (Five-Eighth) vs. Tom Dearden (Five-Eighth)
Phoenix Crossland (Halfback) vs. Jake Clifford (Halfback)
Forwards:
Daniel Saifiti (Prop) vs. Jordan McLean (Prop)
Jayden Brailey (Hooker) vs. Reece Robson (Hooker)
Leo Thompson (Prop) vs. Jason Taumalolo (Prop)
Tyson Frizell (Second Row, Captain) vs. Heilum Luki (Second Row)
Dylan Lucas (Second Row) vs. Jeremiah Nanai (Second Row)
Adam Elliott (Lock) vs. Reuben Cotter (Lock)
Interchange:
Tyson Gamble vs. Sam McIntyre
Mat Croker vs. Harrison Edwards
Jack Hetherington vs. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki
Brodie Jones vs. Griffin Neame
Reserves:
Tom Cant vs. Jaxon Purdue
Will Pryce vs. Chad Townsend
Jackson Hastings vs. Thomas Mikaele
Kyle McCarthy vs. Marly Bitungane
Kai Pearce-Paul vs. Tom Chester
Bradman Not the Best
Unfortunately, Bradman Best is OUT of the team due to a hamstring injury — his 5th of the season. It’s highly likely that Dylan Lucas will replace him in the centres, and Kai Pearce-Paul (KPP) will come into the starting side in the back row. Both are capable replacements, and this will only reinforce the Knights’ ambush mentality heading into Townsville.
Ruck Interpretation Could Impact the Final Result
If referee Todd Smith puts his whistle away and allows the teams to grind out the ruck, it will favour Newcastle. However, we have a strong sense that this may not be the case. If he is keen to blow the whistle and piggyback the Cowboys out of their own end, it could have a significant influence on the final outcome by playing to the Cowboys strengths.
Betting Markets Have the Knights as Firm Underdogs, Just the Way AOB Likes It
According to Topsport.com.au, the Knights are set at $3.10 in head-to-head markets, while the Cowboys are firm favourites at $1.36. This underdog status suits Adam O’Brien’s mentality perfectly.
Match Prediction
We are sitting on the fence for this one. We give the Knights a great chance to pull off an ambush-style victory in Townsville; however, the style of refereeing, which is yet to be determined, forces us to play it safe. We will announce any live bets placed on X during play so tune in during the match.
The Knighthood Podcast Achieves a Remarkable Season Profit
With the win last week, we have achieved an outstanding result in betting on the Knights in 2024 — a record that no one can publicly rival. We have put our money and reputation on the line every week of the 2024 season and have delivered the ultimate result, achieving a season profit of 40%. Our season tally was 24 wins, 12 losses (67%) at average odds of $2.10.
Tune In for a Full Review
The Knighthood Podcast will be live at 7PM via YouTube on Tuesday, 17/9/24. Tune in for a full review of the match and, hopefully, a preview of an upcoming finals match!
Watch it live here: