More Uncertain Calls from O’Brien: Will They Pay Off Against the Rabbitohs?

Michael Burkill - The Knighthood Podcast

Published: Wednesday 21/08/2024 at 11:24AM

A Must-Win Match for the Newcastle Knights

This Saturday’s clash against the South Sydney Rabbitohs is a must-win match for the Newcastle Knights if they hope to stay in the race to make the finals. As the pressure mounts, head coach Adam O’Brien has once again raised eyebrows with his team selections. Throughout the season, O’Brien’s choices have often been met with skepticism, and this week is no different. Fans and analysts alike are questioning whether these decisions will strengthen the team or leave them vulnerable against a depleted but desperate Rabbitohs side. With so much riding on this match, O’Brien’s latest decisions could either vindicate his approach or exacerbate the doubts surrounding his leadership this season.

Questionable Team Selections

O’Brien has opted to replace the promising Kyle McCarthy with the more experienced but out-of-position Dylan Lucas. Although McCarthy has only played one match, he showed real promise. Given Lucas is returning from a hamstring injury, it might have been a wiser call to put faith in McCarthy and utilise Lucas off the bench. This approach could have allowed Lucas to ease back into the game while maintaining the momentum McCarthy started to build.

Untried Combinations in the Halves

Jack Cogger has been promoted from the bench to start the match in the six jersey over Will Pryce, despite a number of lackluster performances this season. He is combining with Phoenix Crossland, who had a poor performance last week and is playing out of his now preferred position of hooker or bench utility. It’s worth noting that Hastings and Pryce combined nicely last week in the NSW Cup (reserve grade), and this combination seems more likely to work than the untried one of Cogger and Crossland.

Injury Troubles: Knights vs. Rabbitohs

Adding to the intrigue of this matchup, the South Sydney Rabbitohs are severely depleted, missing several of their star players. Cody Walker, Latrell Mitchell, Jai Arrow, Campbell Graham, Lachlan Ilias, Alex Johnston, and Tevita Tatola are all sidelined, leaving the Rabbitohs without much of their usual firepower. This situation places even more pressure on the Knights, who are comparatively less affected by injuries.

The Knights are missing Bradman Best, Tyson Gamble, Enari Tuala, and Jacob Saifiti, but their squad remains relatively intact. While these absences are notable, they don’t represent the same level of disruption that the Rabbitohs are facing. This difference in injury impact could give the Knights a significant advantage, provided O’Brien’s selections can capitalise on the Rabbitohs’ weakened state.

Team Lineups

Backs:

• Fullback: Jye Gray (Rabbitohs) vs. Kalyn Ponga (Knights)

• Winger: Fletcher Myers (Rabbitohs) vs. Fletcher Sharpe (Knights)

• Centre: Taane Milne (Rabbitohs) vs. Dane Gagai (Knights)

• Centre: Richard Kennar (Rabbitohs) vs. Dylan Lucas (Knights)

• Winger: Jacob Gagai (Rabbitohs) vs. Greg Marzhew (Knights)

• Five-Eighth: Jack Wighton (Rabbitohs) vs. Jack Cogger (Knights)

• Halfback: Dean Hawkins (Rabbitohs) vs. Phoenix Crossland (Knights)

Forwards:

• Prop: Davvy Moale (Rabbitohs) vs. Daniel Saifiti (Knights)

• Hooker: Damien Cook (Rabbitohs) vs. Jayden Brailey (Knights)

• Prop: Sean Keppie (Rabbitohs) vs. Leo Thompson (Knights)

• 2nd Row: Keaon Koloamatangi (Rabbitohs) vs. Tyson Frizell (Knights)

• 2nd Row: Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) vs. Kai Pearce-Paul (Knights)

• Lock: Cameron Murray (Rabbitohs) vs. Adam Elliott (Knights)

Interchange:

• 14: Peter Mamouzelos (Rabbitohs) vs. Will Pryce (Knights)

• 15: Jacob Host (Rabbitohs) vs. Mat Croker (Knights)

• 16: Thomas Burgess (Rabbitohs) vs. Jack Hetherington (Knights)

• 17: Shaquai Mitchell (Rabbitohs) vs. Brodie Jones (Knights)

Reserves:

• 18: Siliva Havili (Rabbitohs) vs. Thomas Cant (Knights)

• 19: Liam Le Blanc (Rabbitohs) vs. Sebastian Su’a (Knights)

• 20: Michael Chee Kam (Rabbitohs) vs. Jackson Hastings (Knights)

• 21: Izaac Tu’itupou Thompson (Rabbitohs) vs. Kyle McCarthy (Knights)

• 22: Tyrone Munro (Rabbitohs) vs. David Armstrong (Knights)

Final Teams — Hastings and McCarthy Added to Reserves List

As always in rugby league, final team selections are not confirmed until 60 minutes before kick-off. Adding to the uncertainty, Hastings and McCarthy have been included in the reserves list, which could lead to some last-minute changes. This adds another layer of uncertainty to the match, especially given the untested combinations O’Brien has chosen.

Betting Odds Reflect Expectation

The Knights are currently favorites to win via TAB at $1.48, a reflection of their relatively stronger lineup and the Rabbitohs’ injury struggles. Given the depleted state of the Rabbitohs, who are without several key players, the Knights should be winning this match.

Match Prediction

Questionable team selections and their failure to close out the match last week against the Sharks place the Knights under significant pressure to keep their season alive. However, they have shown an ability to win in matches when their backs are against the wall, just as they did against the Tigers two weeks ago. While it’s hard to be overly confident, the Knights should be winning this one and keeping their finals hopes alive. Knights by 6.

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